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Aviano at Desert Ridge State of Affairs Real Estate Wise


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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | November 5th, 2014


Here is the way appraisers look at a neighborhood; in this case Aviano:

Fannie Mae 1004MC Statistics

Inventory Analysis

Prior 7-12 Months
11/05/2013 - 05/04/2014

Prior 4-6 Months
05/05/2014 - 08/04/2014

Current - 3 Months
08/05/2014 - 11/05/2014

Total # of Comparable Sales (Settled)

31

15

10

Absorption Rate (Total Sales/Months)

5.17

5.00

3.33

Total # of Active Listings

13 (Active on 05/04/2014)

15 (Active on 08/04/2014)

28 (Active on 11/05/2014)

Months of Housing Supply (Total Listings / Ab. Rate)

2.51

3

8.41

Median Sale & list Price, Dom, Sale/List %

Prior 7-12 Months

Prior 4-6 Months

Current - 3 Months

Median Comparable Sale Price

620,000

595,000

634,000

Median Comparable Sales DOM

67

63

53

Median Comparable List Price

580,000

649,000

633,500

Median Comparable Listings DOM

141

135

80

The absorption rate is slowing as we now have 25 active and 3 UCB so technically 28 active listings. This last 3 month period things have cooled slightly going from 15 sales to 10. A couple of the active listings have added lease options due to sales slowing. So we now have an 8.41 month supply of homes in Aviano based on the pace of sales and the number of listings. This last part of the year is usually slow especially after Thanksgiving so pushing price is going to be tough. In the last 10 days there have been 5 new listings and 5 price drops. There have been 7 closed sales in the last 10 days as well so those contracts were executed in the early September timeframe. There are currently 2 pending and those 3 under contract - all extremities crossed - should close before the end of the year. Add is a couple three off MLS or a last minute cash and we are still likely to come in below 60 sales this year. 2013 Aviano had 65 sales and 2012 saw 60. This is likely the new norm with +/- 20 active listings at any given time.