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Aviano Homes for Sale - Inventory Changes


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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | June 30th, 2014


Two recent observations from Michael Orr at The Cromford Report are giving hope to sellers:

"June 29 - Those who detect some improvement in the market for sellers are not mistaken. The very slow rise in the Cromford® Market Index has started to accelerate in the last week and it has reached the level of 88 for the first time since mid February. While this is still quite some way below the perfectly balanced level of 100 it is significantly better than the low point of 83.8 that we reached in mid March.

Supply remains well below normal and is still declining. Demand has stopped falling and is showing signs of a slight recovery. Unless we get a surge in new listings during early July, continued improvement is likely to get us back to the balanced zone of 90-110 within 2 or 3 weeks.

June 28 - One of the more surprising things about the market this month is the relative scarcity of new listings. Over the last 4 weeks we have seen 5.5% fewer new listings added to the ARMLS database than during the same period in 2013. This is a total of 8,584 compared with 9,088 in 2013 and 8,971 in 2012. Since 2012 was a very weak year for new listings, in fact the lowest since our records started in 2000, this means we are setting new record lows at the moment. This is a recent development. Just last month we had slightly more new listings (up 0.7%) during the prior 4 weeks than at the same time last year. The trend appears to be accelerating too. In the last week we saw 11.4% fewer new listings than in the same period in 2013.

This lack of new supply is helping to balance out the effect of the continuing low demand. Normally at this time of year we start to see the active listing counts start to increase because buyers are less active during the months when high temperatures are consistently measured with 3 digits. However listing cancellation and expiry rates are much higher than last year so active listing counts are still falling.

If demand were to recover from its current lull then low supply could quickly become a serious problem for buyers as it was in 2012 and the first half of 2013."

Doug Ingersoll | 480.330.0735 | doug0735@gmail.com | @dougingersoll

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