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Aviano Homes for Sale - Inventory & Cromford Report


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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | May 15th, 2013


The normal sale La Bella model at 3931 East Crest Lane is back to active in MLS. Currently priced at $670K or $189 for each of the 3539 sq ft.

It took 5 days for the normal sale Terraza at 3731 East Maffeo Road to get under contract. It is currently in pending status last priced at $734,888 or $158 for each of the 4640 sq ft. The is is a great illustration of how quickly a home can get under contract if it is priced reasonably, reasonably upgraded and in a decent location. There is demand for homes in Aviano but those not under contract are not under contract for a reason.

In addition to being for sale for $549K or $199.56 for each of the 2751 sq ft, the Tarragona model at 3986 East Navigator Lane is also for lease in MLS for $2595 a month unfurnished.

The Tarragona model at 3977 East Hashknife Road is also for lease priced at $2500 a month unfurnished.

Recent daily observations from Michael Orr at the Cromford Report:

May 13 - For those looking for signs of some weakness somewhere in the Greater Phoenix market, we suggest Coolidge. This small city way out in the heart of rural Pinal County was hit extremely hard by the housing downturn but was recovering quickly until recently.
Today's numbers are not too impressive:
    63 active listings (49 last year)
    5.3 months of supply (2.7 last year)
    12 sales per month (18 last year)
    contract ratio 61.1 (234.8 last year)
    monthly median sales price $48,000 ($68,700 last year)

We wouldn't read too much into one month of numbers for a small market like Coolidge, but there's no denying that the last 30 days have been discouraging. Coolidge can hardly be more affordable, but it is too far away from most employment centers for the majority of people to consider it commutable. We suggest keeping an eye on it for the next few months.

May 12 - The average number of Notices of Trustee Sale per working day in Maricopa County is down to 81 over the last month. This is the same number as in early January 2003, well before the housing bubble and when the population of Maricopa County was a lot smaller than it is now. I think it is therefore fair to declare the number of foreclosure notices back to within the normal range. The highest number reached per working day (using a 30-day moving average) was 498 recorded on March 12, 2009. This was the peak of the foreclosure wave and it is now over 4 years behind us.

May 11 - Inventory is growing in some places and falling in others. It is difficult to detect a consistent pattern. For example over the month between April 9 and May 9:

    active listings (including UCB) are up 12% in Peoria but down 15% in Goodyear
    they are up 2.5% in Mesa but down 8% in Queen Creek, and down 7% in Chandler

The overall active listing numbers should stop falling soon and start the long rise that usually lasts until the end of November. It is common for them to decline a little further during the last 2 weeks of May, but I would be surprised if they didn't start rising slowly but steadily once we hit June.

May 10 - The Under Contract average $/SF is still rising - it reached $116.17 today with $116.02 for the 7-day moving average. In 2012 we saw a decline in this number from the end of April to the beginning of August and we have been half-expecting a similar decline this year. It has not happened yet. We haven't really seen any significant hesitation in the upward trend since the end of December.

May 9 - Way back in April 2009, over 4 years ago, I purchased a lender-owned property from Aurora Loan Services and refurbished it throughout to turn it into a rental. I still own it. However Zillow shows it as an "REO-Post Foreclosure" (i.e. lender owned) and therefore says it may sell for 30% to 60% below market value. I also purchased a house in Florence 85132 in April 2009. I note that Zillow is predicting that prices will rise 7.3% in ZIP code 85132 next year but that prices in Florence will rise 6.2%. Huh? Florence and ZIP code 85132 are the same area as Florence only has one ZIP code. Looking up information on Zillow is like looking at some parallel universe where the natural laws of real estate do not apply. It is no wonder people have a completely false picture of the size of the REO pool and a poor conception of the discounts that apply to bank owned homes.  

Tags:aviano,desert ridge,phoenix,real estate,villages at aviano,fireside,Arizona,short sale,foreclosure,fireside at desert ridge,Toll Brothers,pulte,bella monte,north phoenix. Information and pictures supplied by MLS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Charts courtesy of The Cromford Report and Michael Orr.