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Aviano Velocity of Sales as of 6-16-17

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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | June 16th, 2017

The current 3 month period for Aviano has had 18 sales - up from 14 in the previous quarter. The pace of sales in Aviano is incredibly consistant at around 16 a quarter. Demand is steady. What is not steady is the amount of available inventory. Looks like about a year ago it began to creep up to the point where there is 6.33 months of supply which the textbooks tell us is a buyers market.

The breakdown by collection has been this proportion forever; 11 Ocotillo, 6 Cassia, 8 Palo Verde, 6 Desert Willow, 4 Cottonwood and 4 Mesquite. A healthy choice of whatever collection or price strata you want.

Why are these people moving? Some say downsizing after being freed of children. Others say folks are getting out before Sky Crossing takes Mr. Demand to the woodshed. Or maybe it is the natural order of family cycles. The old rule of thumb was on average people moved every 7 years. However the great recession took that thumb clean off.

It will be interesting to watch the impact of Sky Crossing. That annoying pop up thing in the lower right hand corner of the website allows me to talk with folks who visit the website. The overwhelming question is 'we are all going to pummeled back into the home value stone age' hand wringing. I don't think so. I think - and my opinion and $8 will get you a cup of fancy coffee someplace - that we are in a new normal. The one thing that most folks agree on is that our homes look dated. That may be the reason behind Fireside velocity of sales kicking Avianos butt. What Fireside doesn't have is space. You can always upgrade surfaces but you cant add square feet to your yard. A good friend likens Aviano to the Arcadia neighborhood of Phoenix and that is the best analagy I have heard so far.  

Fannie Mae 1004MC Statistics

Inventory AnalysisPrior 7-12 Months
06/16/2016 - 12/15/2016
Prior 4-6 Months
12/16/2016 - 03/15/2017
Current - 3 Months
03/16/2017 - 06/16/2017
Total # of Comparable Sales (Settled) 32 14 18
Absorption Rate (Total Sales/Months) 5.33 4.67 6.00
Total # of Active Listings 15 (Active on 12/15/2016) 25 (Active on 03/15/2017) 38 (Active on 06/16/2017)
Months of Housing Supply (Total Listings / Ab. Rate) 2.81 5.35 6.33
Median Sale & list Price, Dom, Sale/List %Prior 7-12 MonthsPrior 4-6 MonthsCurrent - 3 Months
Median Comparable Sale Price 611,250 499,880 622,500
Median Comparable Sales DOM 88 102 73
Median Comparable List Price 575,000 649,900 649,900
Median Comparable Listings DOM 230 147 64.5
Median Sale Price as % of List Price 98 % 98 % 98 %