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Cromford Phoenix RE Market Analysis

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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | April 18th, 2016

The chart above plots the number of listings cancelled based on the calendar month. For the current month the figures are month-to-date. It is based on all ARMLS residential sales within Greater Phoenix (i.e. it excludes out of area listings). Cancellations are low when the market is hot and high when it it is not. This chart gives you a good idea of how well the market is performing from a seller's point of view.

From Mike Orr at the Cromford Report: "In most years, prices make strong progress between March and June so we felt confident that last month's forecast was reasonable. Only adding 7c to the average price per sq. ft. between March 15 and April 15 is pretty underwhelming. We are forecasting a more impressive advance for May 15, but we could again be confounded by a negative change in the sales mix. Normally prices decline between June and September each year, so sellers will be hoping for a stronger pricing trend during the next 2 months than we saw during the last 2 months." 
April 16 - "While the low end of the market labors under weak supply conditions and the mid range continues to look strong, the upper end of the market has got a fair assortment of trouble spots. If we segment by price among the primary luxury areas of the valley, we see the following:
A. $500K to $1M
Supply is up 19% compared to April 2015 while sales during the first quarter were up a strong 16%. Despite the increase in sales the additional inventory is forcing sellers to agree to weaker pricing. The average price per square foot for first quarter sales was down 2.4% from $198 to $194 per sq. ft. compared with 1Q 2015.
B. $1M to $2M
Supply is up 18% while sales during the first quarter were up 9%. Despite this imbalance sellers seem to have more backbone in this price range and have eked out a 2.1% gain from $283 to $288 per sq. ft. between 1Q 2015 and 1Q 2016.
C. Over $2M
Supply is 7% higher than last year while first quarter sales were up 15%. This is the best of the three segments for sellers and they achieved a 2.5% gain from $426 to $437 per sq. ft. between 1Q 2015 and 1Q 2016.
Since segment A is by far the largest in terms of unit sales, the overall appreciation for homes over $500,000 was an insipid -0.5% between 1Q 2015 and 1Q 2016.
Note that all of the above numbers are for single family homes only.
Based on 1Q 2015 to 1Q 2016 comparisons, the weakest ZIP codes for luxury price trends are currently 85016, 85048, 85142, 85207, 85213, 85262, 85266, 85286 and 85383.
The strongest ZIP codes for luxury price trends are currently 85018, 85020, 85248, 85251, 85254, 86255, 85258, 85259, 85268, 85284 and 85377."