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Economic Update

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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | January 1st, 2013

If you have any real estate questions stop by the next get together 1.2.13 at the Aviano community center at 6:30 PM. More info here. Free.

From the most recent Monday Morning Quarterback newsletter from Elliott Pollack:

Arizona employment continued to grow in November. Year-to-date, total nonfarm employment now stands 2.2% above a year ago in the state. Greater Phoenix was up 2.7% for the first 11 months of the year while Tucson was up a modest 0.7%. For the state as a whole, all sectors except for Information and Other Services were up. The largest percentage gains were in Construction, Professional & Business Services, Educational & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality. For Greater Phoenix, only Other Services, a small employment category, was down. In Greater Tucson, several sectors including Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, Transportation & Utilities, Information, Educational & Health Services and Other Services were all down.

The unemployment rate continues to decline. As of November, the rate stood at 7.8% for the state, 6.9% in Greater Phoenix and 6.6% in Greater Tucson. Total claims for weekly unemployment insurance continues to decline and now stands 39.4% below year earlier levels.

The Arizona Department of Administration estimates that 2012 population growth will be a mediocre 0.9% or 60,391 people for the state as a whole. In the pre-recession year of 2006, the net increase was 191,933 people. The estimate for Greater Phoenix was 1.1% or 46,296 people. For Greater Tucson, it was only 0.4% or 4,299 people. Tucson’s result implies continued population outflows as the figure is less than births over deaths.

Arizona retail sales for October (reported as November collections) were up 9.1% over October 2011. Total sales were up 4.0%. This is good news and hopefully continued through the holiday season.

R.L. Brown reports that there were 772 permits in Greater Phoenix during November. This is a 69.2% gain over 2011. There have been 10,947 permits issued year-to-date through November. This was a 73.7% increase for the first 11 months of the year over the same period last year. In Greater Tucson, permits were up 43.4% from a year ago.