This article "Arizona economy, millenials and housing" is from the Scottsdale Association of Realtors. It is an excellent synopsis of a morning I spent listening to some excellent speakers on real estate and our economy. Read this and you will be way ahead of folks that watch tv!
From Elliott D. Pollack - "Housing affordability in Greater Phoenix improved in the 3rd quarter according to the NAHB Housing Opportunity Index. The index is now at 70.9 compared to 68.3 a year ago. This indicates that 70.9% of the households in Greater Phoenix can afford the median price home. In Tucson, the index stands at 74.2, down from 75.9 a year ago."
From Stuart Crawford at VIP Mortgage: "The recent trend toward higher mortgage rates paused actually took a brief pause last week. A shortfall in the retail sales data and increased expectations for additional stimulus in Europe were positive for mortgage rates, which ended the week slightly lower.
After strong readings over the summer, retail sales (which account for roughly 70% of economic activity), have been disappointing for the last three months. In October, retail sales rose slightly from September, but the consensus was for a significantly larger increase. This followed declines in both August and September. Recent strong data on job gains and wage growth could lead to an improvement in coming months.
Weak economic data in Europe released also helped U.S. mortgage rates. Eurozone GDP growth during the third quarter was below expectations, mostly due to a decline in exports. This resulted in increased expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will expand its bond buying program to help boost economic growth. Increased demand for bonds from the ECB lowers yields around the world, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
This week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Tuesday. CPI looks at the price change for finished goods which are sold to consumers. Industrial Production, an important indicator of economic activity, also will come out on Tuesday. The Minutes from the October 28 Fed meeting will be released on Wednesday. These detailed Minutes provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials and their thoughts on a pending rate hike. It will be a busy week for information!"
Stuart can be reached at 480.776.2954