Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast
Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.
For the monthly period ending August 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $137.95 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down 1.9% from the $140.66 we now measure for July 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $139.35, with a 90% confidence range of $136.56 to $142.14, so this month the actual pricing came in quite a bite lower than the mid point of our forecast but well within the 90% confidence interval.
On August 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $145.51, up 1.0% from the reading for July 15. Among those pending listings we have 92.3% normal, 2.8% in REOs and 4.9% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This means we have a slightly higher percentage of non-distressed property under contract than last month. The REOs are slat but the pre-foreclosures and short sales are down.
Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on August 15 is $139.10, which is 0.8% above the August 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $136.32 to $141.88.
The usual summer price decline is probably hitting its low point about now and we expect the long climb back up the spring peak level to begin over the next month and continue until the end of December.