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Mortgage Update and Distressed Inventory

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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | May 10th, 2016

The chart above plots the number of listings under contract, measured on a weekly basis for 85050/54 which comprises Desert Ridge. This is a useful tool for measuring demand.

From Stuart Crawford at VIP Mortgage -

Concerns about the pace of global economic growth were positive for mortgage rates last week.  Friday's key employment data caused some volatility, but had little net effect. This caused mortgage rates to end the week slightly lower. 
The news released caused investors to reduce their outlook for economic growth in Europe and China.  On Tuesday, the European Commission (the executive body of the European Union) cut its growth forecast for the Eurozone for 2016 and 2017.  The data from China released on Tuesday was also disappointing.  China's PMI manufacturing index fell more than expected to a level which suggests that the sector is contracting.  When global economic growth slows, it reduces the outlook for future inflation, which is positive for mortgage rates.
The most highly anticipated economic report of the month (Jobs Figures) contained minor surprises.  Against a consensus forecast of 200K, the economy added 160K jobs in April, which was the lowest level since September 2015.  Strength was seen in health care, while the retail sector was weak.  The unemployment rate remained at 5.0% and average hourly earnings (an indicator of wage growth) were 2.5% higher than a year ago.  The weakness in job gains was offset by the strength in the wage data, and the report caused little change in mortgage rates (essentially a “wash”).
Looking ahead, additional labor market data in the JOLTS report will be released on Tuesday.  JOLTS measures job openings and labor turnover rates.  The report on retail sales will be released on Friday.  Remember, consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator.  

Stuart can be reached at 480.776.2954

And from Michael Orr at the Cromford Report:

May 10 - The Black Knight Financial Service Mortgage Monitor report for March shows a dramatic fall in delinquency over the past 2 months. There is something of a seasonal pattern in these numbers and January to March is the time of year when the delinquency rate tumbles almost every year. However it is significant that the total delinquency rate for the USA is now at pre-housing crisis levels and the 30-day delinquency rate is the lowest in well over 15 years.

For Arizona we have 2.9% of first home loans delinquent and 0.5% in foreclosure, making 3.4% of loans non-current. The long term average is 5%. Arizona ranks 43 out 51 states (including DC) for non-current loans and 49 out of 51 for homes in foreclosure.

For those who like working foreclosures, Arizona is not a very productive location any more. The best spots would be:

  1. New Jersey 4.3%
  2. New York 3.7%
  3. Hawaii 3.5%
  4. Maine 2.7%
  5. Florida 2.6%
  6. New Mexico 2.4%
  7. Delaware 2.3%
  8. District of Columbia 2.2%
  9. Rhode Island 2.2%
  10. Connecticut 2.1%