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Mortgage Update and Where Are the Second Homes?

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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | April 4th, 2016

From Stuart Crawford at VIP Mortgage:

Despite the release of a wide range of major economic data, a speech from Fed Chair Yellen had the biggest influence on mortgage rates last week.  Her comments were favorable for both stocks and bonds, and mortgage rates ended the week lower. 
Since the March 16th Fed meeting, several Fed officials have expressed support for tightening monetary policy at a more rapid pace.  In Tuesday's speech, Yellen laid out reasons that the Fed should take a very gradual approach to tightening monetary policy.  According to Yellen, economic troubles in other countries pose downside risks to the U.S. economy.  She also said that it is unclear if the recent pickup in core inflation will be sustained or whether it was due to temporary factors.  Yellen's message about an outlook for low inflation and a longer expected timeline for tightening by the Fed was good news for mortgage rates.
There were few surprises in the important monthly employment report released on Friday, and it caused little reaction.  Against a consensus forecast of 210K, the economy added 215K jobs in March (this is close to the average monthly pace seen over the past year).  The unemployment rate edged up from 4.9% to 5.0%, the higher rate was mostly due to people entering the workforce, which is a sign of strength.  Average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, rose 0.3% from February, matching expectations. The vast majority of the job gains came in the service sector, while manufacturing continued to shed jobs.
Looking ahead, the Fed minutes from the March 16th meeting will be released on Wednesday, these detailed minutes provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials and have the potential to significantly move markets.

Stuart can bea reached at 480.776.2954

The article, Where are the Nation’s Second Homes? 2014 Data, from www.eyeonhousing.org. reports that according to NAHB estimates, the total count of the second home stock reached 7.5 million in 2014, an increase of 0.6 million over 2009 when NAHB Economics last produced these estimates. The share of second homes among the total housing stock also increased from 5.4% to 5.6%. It is worthwhile to understand the patterns of second homes because they could have a significant economic impact on local housing markets and thus have important policy implications. Of course, the geographic locations of second homes also correspond to population density. Counties with more than 25,000 second homes are mostly located in or near metropolitan areas. The table below lists the top 10 counties with the most second homes. States with at least one such county are Arizona, Florida, California, Massachusetts, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Nevada, South Carolina, Delaware, Texas, Michigan, and Maryland.