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The Cromford Report Mid October Observations

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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | October 18th, 2016

Mid Month Pricing Update and Forecast

Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.

For the monthly period ending October 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $142.45 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is up 2.2% from the $139.37 we now measure for September 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $140.36, with a 90% confidence range of $138.27 to $143.91, so this month the actual pricing came in stronger than the mid-point but lower than the 90% confidence upper bound.

On October 15 the pending listings for all areas & types shows an average list $/SF of $147.60, up 0.7% from the reading for September 15. Among those pending listings we have 92.1% normal, 2.7% in REOs and 5.2% in short sales and pre-foreclosures. This mix slightly favors short sales and pre-foreclosures compared to last month.

Our mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on November 15 is $142.97, which is 0.7% above the October 15 reading. We have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid point, i.e. in the range $140.11 to $145.83.

After the usual summer lull, pricing has regained upward momentum and it seems probable that will see the highest average price per square foot for 2016 posted during December.