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The Cromford Report Phoenix Homes Market


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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | April 3rd, 2016


Cromford Report Daily Observations:
April 2
 - Yesterday we investigated the supply by price range. Today we look at the demand for single family homes, by examining the number of listings under contract:

Price Range Under Contract (including UCB & CCBS) April 1, 2016 Year Ago % Change Comment Contract Ratio April 1, 2016 Contract Ratio March 1, 2016 Contract Ratio April 1, 2015
Under $100K 155 360 -57% large decline 85.6 96.6 116.9
$100K-$125K 214 513 -58% large decline 116.9 135.0 163.9
$125K-$150K 738 1,116 -34% large decline 167.3 137.2 140.7
$150K-$175K 1,163 1,186 -2%   153.0 127.2 111.9
$175K-$200K 1,254 1,115 +12%   110.6 97.2 93.9
$200K-$225K 886 795 +11%   89.8 92.3 86.7
$225K-$250K 1,046 835 +25% strong growth 91.4 73.5 77.0
$250K-$275K 725 598 +21% strong growth 79.5 72.5 73.6
$275K-$300K 709 577 +23% strong growth 62.0 62.6 56.0
$300K-$350K 899 723 +24% strong growth 55.1 52.2 46.5
$350K-$400K 670 552 +21% strong growth 46.6 39.8 38.4
$400K-$500K 723 600 +21% strong growth 38.0 35.9 37.5
$500K-$600K 361 285 +27% strong growth 29.4 25.0 27.5
$600K-$800K 309 297 +4%   23.1 21.6 27.9
$800K-$1M 170 115 +48% strong growth 22.4 21.1 16.8
$1M-$1.5M 103 111 -7%   12.7 12.8 16.4
$1.5M-$2M 63 56 +13%   13.5 12.4 13.7
$2M-$3M 33 39 -15%   8.1 8.1 10.2
Over $3M 16 29 -45% large decline 4.9 6.0 9.7

From $225,000 to $600,000 we have far more listings under contract that at this time last year. We also see very strong growth for the sector from $800,000 to $1 million.

From $175,000 to $225,000 and from $1.5 million to $2 million we have moderate increases in listings under contract of between 10% and 15%. For the sector from $1.5 to $2 million this goes a little way to mitigating the increase in supply.

The shortage of supply means the market under $175,000 is much smaller than last year, though the contract ratios are much higher between $125,000 and $175,000 showing there is no lack of buyer interest. Below $125,000 there is not much for sale and buyer interest is lower than last year too.

There are significant problems for sellers between $1 million and $1.5 million as well as for those over $2 million. This is because the number of listings under contract is down from last year at the same time that supply is much higher. The contract ratios have slipped compared with April 2015 and this signifies a large shift of negotiation power away from sellers and towards buyers. We should not be surprised to see weaker pricing trends in these price ranges as a result.

April 1 - When we examine the number of active single family listings by price range, we can clearly see the long term shortage of affordable homes, the adequate supply in the mid-range and the glut of luxury homes for sale.

Price Range Active (excluding UCB & CCBS) April 1, 2016 Year Ago % Change Comment Days of Inventory
Under $100K 181 308 -41%   46
$100K-$125K 183 313 -42%   39
$125K-$150K 441 793 -44% lowest level since 2005 40
$150K-$175K 760 1,060 -28%   52
$175K-$200K 1,134 1,188 -5%   73
$200K-$225K 987 917 +8%   80
$225K-$250K 1,144 1,084 +6%   87
$250K-$275K 912 812 +12%   96
$275K-$300K 1,144 1,031 +11%   115
$300K-$350K 1,633 1,555 +5%   130
$350K-$400K 1,438 1,439 0%   151
$400K-$500K 1,903 1,601 +19% highest active count since Mar 2009 191
$500K-$600K 1,229 1,036 +19% highest active count since Apr 2009 253
$600K-$800K 1,337 1,065 +26% highest active count since Jun 2009 293
$800K-$1M 760 683 +11% highest active count since Aug 2009 384
$1M-$1.5M 808 677 +19% highest active count since Nov 2009 480
$1.5M-$2M 465 408 +14% highest active count since Mar 2010 684
$2M-$3M 407 382 +7% highest active count since Mar 2010 798
Over $3M 327 300 +9% highest active count since Dec 2009 1,219

From $400,000 upwards we have more active listings than we have seen in the last 6 years, so buyers have plenty of choice and therefore negotiating power.

Below $200,000 we have a chronic shortage of homes available for purchase, and there is precious little to rent too. Here sellers have most of the negotiating power.

The median sales price for single family homes is at $230,000.