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Valley and Aviano Sales Price Numbers


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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | September 9th, 2016


Valley and Aviano Home Price Growth

September 9th, 2016 09:10:00 am

Elliott Pollack & Company sends out the Monday Morning Quarterback and yes I know it's Friday but just
getting to it now. Here is the key paragragh and chart from it:

"Locally, home price growth is the topic of the day.  Based on two separate indices that we follow regarding
home prices in Greater Phoenix, the MLS and Case-Shiller, we are getting closer and closer to what we would
consider the long term average expected growth in home prices.  The "bubble" that began in 2004 and burst by
2008 is easily identifiable. This is the period when home prices deviated from the long run average in home price
appreciation.  The correction has now extended over eight years but we are heading in the right direction and trending
right back to historical averages (see chart below).  While many fortunes were won and lost during this period, for those
that stayed in their home the entire time, it will soon appear as if it never happened."

Home Price Indices.jpg

In review of Aviano sale price numbers (per square foot) over the years we have the same bell curve.

  2 story 1 story Sales
2004 156 190  
2005 187 209  
2006 243 282  
2007 211 251  
2008 167 183  
2009 126 147  
2010 119 142  
2011 124 137  
2012 140 150 60
2013 163 170 65
2014 172 186 58
2015 170 190 52
2016 173 209 34 ytd

A safe assumption would be around 60 home sales per year with a 5% annual appreciation rate
more for single story homes. Now that Sanctuary is nearly sold out we may see a spike in sales
activity for a couple of years before Sky Crossing puts a beat down on sales volume like Sanctuary did.