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Villages at Aviano Inventory 10.29.13

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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | October 29th, 2013

Like cords of wood stacked up next to a fireplace at the beginning of Winter. That would be the mental picture of the Villages at Aviano for both sale and lease. For those of us who lived it, very reminiscent of the dark days of 2008/2009. Too much choice for too few customers.

Let's start with leases first. There are currently 13 condominiums for lease. Click HERE for the list. Year to date there have been 23 leased. Click HERE for that list. So at 10 months gone and 23 leased we have an absorption rate of 2.3 a month. Given 13 units for lease that comes to a 5.6 month supply. Just brutal. Looking at the leased YTD is is very consistent; 3 in October, 2 in Sept, 3 in August and so on. It is also clear that tenants are looking for value in the price per month not necessarily the price per sq ft. The lowest priced condo for lease in the Villages is .93 a sq ft - the next lowest is $1.01. Year to date the leased condos have sold for a low of .93, average of $1.05 and a high of $1.26.  

Same story with Villages condominiums for sale. Click HERE for the list of active listings. The average list price is $197.85 a sq ft. We have two listings priced at $172.70 and $187.59 for a Lucca and Amici model - some of the most popular. Click HERE for YTD solds. 13 in 2013 which comes to 1.3 a month and with 10 available, a 7.69 month supply. Toll Brothers has broken ground on two new buildings, #19 and #20. New inventory is slightly less than a year away and likely will be priced more than resale. Possibly much more given their history and that will make the resales compare favorably. That is why they halted construction approximately 3 years ago. Could not compete with resale prices.

This is not just a Villages issue. The story is the same for all of Desert Ridge and the Valley. There is some good news though. Click HERE for a great presentation by Fletcher Wilcox with Grand Canyon Title. The number of potential buyers is increasing, jobs are increasing and the Phoenix population is increasing. So while it looks grim now this surely can't be a long term trend. Too many factors in our favor.

Tags:aviano,desert ridge,phoenix,real estate,villages at aviano,fireside,Arizona,short sale,foreclosure,fireside at desert ridge,Toll Brothers,pulte,bella monte,north phoenix,mayo clinic,desert ridge marketplace,city north,desert lifestyle,loop 101. Information and pictures supplied by MLS and deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Charts courtesy of The Cromford Report and Michael Orr.