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Cromford Report for November 7, 2016

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Blog by Doug Ingersoll | November 7th, 2016

Market Summary for the Beginning of November

Let us start with the basic ARMLS numbers for November 1, 2016 relative to November 1, 2015 for all areas & types:

  • Active Listings (excluding UCB): 21,028 versus 21,439 last year - down 1.9% - but up 4.3% from 20,153 last month
  • Active Listings (including UCB): 24,862 versus 24,644 last year - up 0.9% - and up 3.2% compared with 24,101 last month
  • Pending Listings: 6,050 versus 5,821 last year - up 3.9% - but down 0.2% from 6,065 last month
  • Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS & UCB): 9,884 versus 9,026 last year - up 9.5% - but down 1.3% from 10,013 last month
  • Monthly Sales: 7,106 versus 6,328 last year - up 12.3% - but down 4.5% from 7,437 last month
  • Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $144.38 versus $134.29 last year - up 7.5% - and up 1.9% from $141.71 last month
  • Monthly Median Sales Price: $229,000 versus $211,000 last year - up 8.5% - but down 0.4% from $230,000 last month

The sales count for October was very impressive, all the more so since there were only 20 working days this October and 22 in 2015. To be up 12.3% with 2 fewer days represents very strong sales growth year over year.

Pricing too was positive, with the average price per square foot (our preferred measure) up 7.5% for the year and jumping almost 2% from the month before. There was little movement in the median sales price month to month however.

We can see that once again the tendency for agents to use UCB instead of pending status has distorted the demand picture, with listings under contract up 9.5% but pending listings up only 3.9%. Both are higher than last year, another positive omen.

For sellers there is very little to grumble about in these numbers. Supply did move higher by 4.3% (excluding UCB), but it moves higher every year, and in 2016 the trend was weaker than last year. Even the luxury market, although still not running on all cylinders, is looking quite a bit better than a few months ago. There were 12 single family sales over $3 million compared with only 5 in October 2015, which is an increase of 140%. Sales between $2 million and $3 million were up 80% from 5 to 9.

Sales counts were down below $175,000 and dramatically lower in all price ranges under $150,000 Supply is very limited in these bottom price ranges, but demand seems to be cooling for what is left unsold.

Volume in the mid-priced ranges is up substantially from last year, with closings more than 30% higher for all ranges from $175,000 to $350,000. Unit volume between $800,000 and $2 million was also up more than 30%.

So no evidence of any slow down because of the impending election....